The Future Or Moores Law Philosophy Essay

The Future Or Moores integrity Philosophy EssayMoores law is named after Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder and electric chair Emeritus of Intel Corporation. He first published what later became cognize as Moores Law in a 1965 Electronics Magazine article c on the wholeed Cramming more components onto integrated circuits.The Law states that solver manu occurrenceures depart increase the number of transistors to be placed on an integrated circuit, exponential functionly by a factor of 2, in every 18 to 24 months. The steady harvesting of the Law, has held true for decades, and while scientists have had to resort to ever more creative methods to keep it going, Intel has proven that such exponential growth go forth last for at least for a few more years.It seems that, while Gordon Moore was arguably the first to note the exponential growth in calculation index number, this exponential trend has been a part of technological progress for a good deal longer than was originally thoug ht.According to fantast Kurzweil, Moores law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, only when the fifth paradigm to forecast accelerating price- consummation ratios. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in role (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Newmans relay-based Heath Robinson machine that chapped the Nazi Lorenz cipher, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer. This is illustrated in the chart below.What is engineering singularity? This radical was first proposed by the mathematician Vernor Vinge who defined Technological Singularity as a time at which the rate of accelerating change increases to a situation where it be flows human surpassing. He said computers within a decade of our current era exit be more powerful than the human brain. The machine s will rapidly become much smarter than the humans who initially created them. This will cause a convergence of all technologies, until humans became totally embedded and submerged into a virtual world. This singularity is a state in which humans will be components of a cybernetic social network of such complexity that no one person will be able to understand more than a tiny fraction of the whole.As much as Singularitarians rely upon Moores Law to fuel our visions of the future, its not some(prenominal) inescapable truth of the universe. Producing ever smaller transistors is a job for thousands of engineers around the world, spending billions of dollars in research. Each step towards increase computer goor performance per dollar requires innovation, and those innovations take time and effort to perfect. TriGate is a great example millions of dollars and a decade of preparation for its eventual launch.If you were to chart the evolution of the computer in terms of dealing power, you would see that progress has been exponential and Moores Law seems to be self- fulfilling prophecy than a mere law or observation. But will technology singularity sustain of completely wipe off Moores Law? According to Moores Law, the progress of computational power on computers seems to have an exponential growth whilst the futurist claim that technology singularity will accelerate at rate that no human brain kindle comprehend, as computers will achieve human-level light and will be an infusion of different technologies embedded together and the growth will not be exponential. Moores Law may bear on indefinitely, yet it will rely upon the creativity and resilience of many developers at the top of their game. Can they keep it up? Can we keep pushing computers to become smart, better, and more in force(p) so they double in performance every two years?But on the contrary to support Moores Law, Intel, commercialized the worlds first 3D transistor, known as TriGate. The 22nm tr ansistor performs better and uses less energy than the current cutting edge 32nm transistor. Computers so-and-so already perform individual operations orders of magnitude faster than humans can, Farmer said meanwhile, the human brain corpse far superior at parallel processing, or performing multiple operations at once. For most of the past half-century, engineers made computers faster by increasing the number of transistors in their processors, but they only recently began parallelizing computer processors. To work around the fact that individual processors cant be packed with extra transistors, engineers have begun upping figuring power by building multi-core processors, or establishments of chips that perform calculations in parallel.This controls the heat problem, because you can slow down the clock,Denning explained. Imagine that every time the processors clock ticks, the transistors fire. So instead of trying to rush up the clock to run all these transistors at faster rates , you can keep the clock slow and have parallel activity on all the chips. He says Moores law will probably continue because the number of cores in computer processors will go on doubling every two years.According to a research team at the atomic number 31 Institute of Technologys Microsystems Packaging Research Center, they demonstrated a new technology called system-on-package ( fleece). It addresses the otherwise90 percent of the electronic system and paves the way for mega-function systems.In contrast to Moores Law, which addresses 10 percent of system integration at the IC- or device-level only -called the First Law hit it up addresses the system integration problem, live oning to the Second Law of Electronics. SOP combines nanoscale ICs with newly create micro- to nanoscale, thin-film versions of discrete and other components. It embeds both of these components in a new type of package so small that it eventually will transform handhelds into multi- or mega-function syste ms. SOP technology represents a radically different approach to electronic and bio-electronic systems. It shrinks bulky circuit boards with their many components and makes them nearly disappear, leading to package-sized systems hence the name system-on-package. In effect, SOP sets up a new law for system integration. It holds that as the components shrink from milli- to micro- to nanoscale, component density will double every few years, leading to an exponential increase in the number of system functions packaged in a device the size of todays cell phones.Whether we attain the levels and surpass singularity still remains a fierce subject of speculation among the scientist and futurists. Below are excerpts of opponents of singularity, who forecast the phasing out of Moores Law.According to Peter Denning, distinguished professor of computer science at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on innovation, he says that By 2030 whatever technology were using will be sufficiently sm all that we can fit all the computing power thats in a human brain into a physical volume the size of a brain, after all this has been said, there will be the evolution of a super brainy machine that will surpass human understanding. The British mathematician I.J. Good hypothesized that ultra intelligent machines, once created, could design even better machines. There would then unquestionably be an intelligence explosion, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. indeed the first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make,Others argue that Moores law will soon start to head for the hills down, or that it has already. The argument stems from the fact that engineers cant miniaturize transistors much more than they already have, because theyre already pushing atomic limits. When there are only a few atoms in a transistor, you can no longer guarantee that a few atoms behave as theyre supposed to, Denning explained. On the atomic scale, uncom mon quantum effects set in. Transistors no longer maintain a single state represented by a 1 or a 0, but instead vacillate unpredictably amidst the two states, rendering circuits and data storage unreliable. The other limiting factor, Denning says, is that transistors give off heat when they switch between states, and when too many transistors, regardless of their size, are crammed together onto a single silicon chip, the heat they collectively emit melts the chip.Some scientists say computing power is approaching its zenith. Already we see a slowing down of Moores law, the theoretical physicist Michio Kaku said in a Big Think lecture. He says that Computer power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology. He claims that Intel Corporation has admitted this company is now going to three-dimensional chips, chips that compute not just flatly in two dimensions but in the third dimension. The problem is that a Pentium chip today has a layer or s o down to 20 atoms across, 20 atoms across. When that layer gets down to about 5 atoms across, its all over. You have two basic problems are heat (the heat generated will be so intense that the chip will melt and disintegrate) and leakage.(You dont know where the electron is anymore.) Thats the reason why the age of silicon will eventually come to a close. The quantum theory takes over.Kurzweil (1999 2001) has proposed that technical progress can be characterized as accelerating exponential development. According to Kurzweils law of accelerating returns, technical change is generated in an evolutionary process where the outputs of the process are used as inputs in the next phase of the development. This leads to exponential growth. Kurzweil maintains that the rate of exponential growth itself increases. When a particular evolutionary process becomes more effective than its alternatives, greater resources are deployed for the further progress of the effective process. As a result, th e rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially.Evolution, and technology-evolution continued by other means-therefore is a process that leads to accelerating change. Using his observations as a basis, Kurzweil argues that technical development will rapidly lead to computational devices that are more intelligent than humans. The increasing capabilities of computers will further accelerate the speed of technological progress and, at least from our limited perspective, lead to an apparently infinite speed of change. Kurzweil calls this approaching point of extremely rapid changeSingularity. Kurzweils hypothesis of approaching Singularity therefore consists of four major claims. One is the empirical claim that technical developments in computing show exponential growth and that the growth speed has increased over time. Another claim is that this process is generated by a law of accelerated returns which feeds keisterresources to those areas of technology development that grow rapidly. The third claim is that technology creation can be understood as an evolutionary process. The fourth claim is that the speed of change will soon reach levels where the human intelligence, at least in its current forms, perceive infinite pace of change and that this will lead to major changes in the society and in individual lives.